Does Odorizzi to the Blue Jays Make Sense?

There are many attractive free agents the Toronto Blue Jays could look at pursuing this off-season, one of which is starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi.

The Blue Jays expressed interest in Odorizzi’s services last off-season before he decided to accept his qualifying offer and return to the Twins on a one-year deal. The Twins looked to be a contender for the upcoming 2020 season, while the Blue Jays were coming off a 67-win season.

In 2020 the Blue Jays took a gigantic step forward and made the playoffs with a 32-28 record. On the other hand, Odorizzi was only able to pitch in 13.2 innings, as injuries kept him out for most of the season.

Odorizzi made 17.8 million dollars in 2020, and his recent play justified that contract. In 2019 he had a record of 15-7 and an ERA of 3.51. His WAR of 4.3 was 2nd on the Twins pitching staff, only behind Jose Berrios with a WAR of 4.4.

So, with him once again being a free-agent, and knowing that the Jays had an interest in him last summer, could we see him wearing a Blue Jays jersey in 2021?

He would be an impressive fit into the Jays rotation moving forward. Before putting up 15 wins in 2019, his previous career-high in wins for a full season was 11. In 2018 he had a record of 7-10 with an ERA of 4.49, a much different season than in 2019. He doesn't possess the track record of a pitcher that can be the ace of a rotation. He much more likely fits into the category of being a decent number two and a powerful number three in a rotation.

That would work perfectly for the Blue Jays. If they can remain healthy, Ryu and Pearson are Toronto's top two pitchers moving forward, which could slot Odorizzi into the number three spot perfectly. Then they would have Ray and either another free agent or someone within the organization (Thornton, Borucki, Kay) to fill out the four and five spots.

Ross Atkins has stated the organization has the ability on the payroll to be aggressive in free agency once again this summer if they find a player who they like. Even though the Jays pitching was much better in 2020 than in 2019, there still needs improvement. Teams that contend usually have at least four high-end starting pitchers they can lean heavily on, and Odorizzi has shown he can be that high-end starting pitcher.

Odorizzi used his fastball 57.8% of the time in 2019, along with a slider (19.4%), changeup (16.9%), curveball (6.5%), and a cutter (4.8%). He even added a split-fingered fastball to his arsenal in 2020, so he has a wide variety of pitches he can use to throw off hitters.

He will be turning 31 in the springtime, so the expectation is he could lose some velocity in his pitch speeds as he gets deeper into his 30's. However, he has never been a power pitcher, as he only averaged a fastball speed of 93 mph in 2019. Every season before that, he averaged below a 93 MPH fastball.

Looking towards how much it would cost for the Blue Jays to sign him this off-season is a little tricky. Anytime a player is coming off a season where they didn't play due to injury, it becomes a bit tough to judge a fair value. Does Odorizzi feel like he should be paid based on his 2019 performance, or more of a 10-11-win pitcher, which is closer to what he averages over his career?

Based on where he could fit into the Jays rotation, Odorizzi seems like a player that could fit in very nicely in Toronto. On a term of three years or less, and at a reasonable price, Odorizzi could be a massive upgrade to the pitching staff.